Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
